India’s per capita emissions will be less than current US level

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India’s per capita emissions will be less than current US level even in 2031
Nitin Sethi | TNN

New Delhi: Even if India grows by 8% every year with the current set of technologies and policies in place, its per capita emissions will not exceed 2.77 tonnes in 2031 _ almost seven times less than the current per capita emissions of the US and almost four times less than the current per capita emissions of UK.
This has been arrived at by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) after conducting an economy-wide modelling by looking at the future emissions of the country and the impact of economic growth on it.
Carrying out a comprehensive 37 sector non-linear model, the economic think tank has concluded that even under the most favourable assumptions of GDP growth and most adverse assumption of energy efficiency change, per capita carbon dioxide emissions will remain close to the current global average per capita emissions.
As India grows, its economy will get de-carbonised with a sharp decline of energy intensity and carbon dioxide intensity of GDP till 2031.
This, the NCAER study, a summary of which was seen by TOI, says, will happen even as coal remains the dominant primary source of energy and petroleum fuels continue to dominate the transportation sector. The shares of renewable and nuclear energy will increase in future but remain within 7% of the commercial energy supply by 2031, the authors of the report conclude.
The modelling results come in sharp contrast to the rhetoric originating out of industrialized nations that India and China's emissions would outstrip the rich nations in years to come and, therefore, they must curb their emissions _ or deviate from business as usual approach right away.
India has, opposing the famous Nicholas Stern report, always stated that the cost of emission reductions _ a form of carbon tax _ would hurt Indian economy badly. The NCAER study seems to validate that claiming that any imposition of carbon tax will sharply reduce GDP with very little effect on per capita emissions. The cumulative economic losses could be the tune of US$ 5.2 trillion under a 'revenue neutral' carbon tax of US $80 per tonne and a US $5.7 trillion would be borne by the country if the tax is revenue positive.
India has demanded along with other G77 nations and China that the rich countries must bear the full cost of any emission reduction actions taken by the developing and poor countries as they bear the historical burden of polluting most since the industrial era. The study concludes that an imposition of carbon tax would sharply increase poverty levels in urban as well as rural India.
US move to impose more tax on goods from countries not taking greenhouse gas cuts
In what is bound to stir the hornet's nest in days to come, the US House of Representatives has passed a Bill that demands additional tarrifs on goods from countries that do not take on commitments to cut their greenhouse gas emissions. The Indian government has reacted strongly against the move which came tagged along with a report from the WTO that said trade concerns should be subjugated to climate change issues hinting that the tarrifs such as the ones US proposes could not be outrightly rejected. "The environment and commerce ministries are unanimous that there can be no linkage between trade and environment. While it is too early to comment on what would finally emerge out of the process, India will take recourse to whatever means available to prevent this unfair trade practice if it is introduced," said Jairam Ramesh, environment and forests minister who has earlier served as minister of state for commerce as well. "Such a move smacks of protectionism," he added. The US logic runs like this. If climate change Bill is enacted, caps will be imposed on emissions from different sectors. The imposition of these cut-offs would increase cost of the products emerging from the sector. But if other countries do not impose a similar cap on their sectors, then the products from these countries would be cheaper. By putting in provisions to tax such products from countries that don’t impose curbs on the emissions, US intends to target India and China specifically. TNN