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The relative relief consumers in big cities have got might lend credence to this notion. But it is wholly wrong, indeed absurd
The grim reality is that this country is short of power permanently, roughly to the tune of 10 per cent all the year round
The shortage becomes acute when the peak demand soars
Moreover, the way things are going, this unhappy state of affairs is likely to persist for as long as we can foresee
Let the stark facts speak for themselves. The total production of electricity is 135,000 megawatt (MW) a year, which works out to per capita consumption of 700 kilowatt hours (kwh) annually. This compares with 1,200 kwh in China, and 11,000 in the United States. The world average is nearly 2,800 kwh. In the late 1940s, when India became Independent and China had its revolution, electricity consumption in both countries, like other economic indices, was practically equal
possibilities have to be assessed against this backdrop
Future Should we make up our minds to catch up with China’s present — not future — rate of consumption of electricity per head in, say, the next 20 years, we would have to triple our production. This would require building up and making operational at least one major power station every month over that period. Addition to power generation capacity on this scale would be essential also for another pressing reason. The rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth may have come down to 6.7, or at most, seven per cent this year. But the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh’s second government is confident of raising it to between eight and 10 per cent very soon. Since there is an unbreakable link between the GDP growth and the increase in electricity production, it would mean that for every one per cent increase in GDP, the country must also raise its electricity generation by a little over one per cent. In this context, the key question is: Can we do it? Sadly, judging by the consistent record over the last 62 years, the answer has to be in the negative, unless, of course, by some miracle, the country can change radically its policies on power generation and its depressing ways of implementing them. The list of what is wrong is long and discouraging
In the first place, except during the first five-year plan, when Jawaharlal Nehru was severely criticised for planning to “produce more electricity than India can consume”, there never has been adequate investment in the power sector. One of the reasons for this, according to those in the know, is that the gestation period of the highly costly power plants is longer than the five-year tenure of a government or the Plan period
Consequently, no one develops a stake in these projects. The controllers of the purse strings, in any case, do not wish to commit too much money in one go
Secondly, even after a power project has been sanctioned and funds allocated for it, practical difficulties crop up. The selection of sites, acquisition of land, arrangements of water supply and, above all, those for the timely supply of coal by rail from distant coalfields take more time than necessary. When they are completed somehow, the lackadaisical ways of working, rampant corruption, overstaffing and inefficiency take over. The result is that the gestation period becomes even longer than it should be, and much longer than elsewhere
Sorry to bring up China again, but the Chinese have often completed in three years projects that take double that time here
To sum up the result of all this, only once in the last five decades was the Plan target for adding to power generation reached very nearly (97 per cent). That was in the 80s when Rajiv Gandhi was Prime Minister and Mr Vasant Sathe his power minister. Never again has this achievement been matched. On the contrary, the average rate of attaining the Plan target in the power sector has plummeted to no more than 50 or, at best 55 per cent. In cooperation with the Central Electricity Authority, the Union government has set up a large network of “monitors” for every power project. But this has made very little difference to performance
In any brave new effort to break away from the past, too, the country will face some hurdles. India does have ample potential for hydroelectric power
But there is strong resistance to new dams for environmental reasons. Alternative, nonconventional and renewable sources of energy need a long time for discovery as well as development on the requisite scale. Nuclear power will in future play a role, especially after the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal. But even after pending issues are settled, it would take a long while for the new nuclear power reactors to start producing electricity. The French are claiming that their nuclear reactors would become operational in five years. If so, it would be a great help. At present, the existing nuclear plants are operating at less than half the installed capacity because of continuing international sanctions on the import of uranium
At one time there was considerable enthusiasm for natural gas-based power generation and this country even entered into a trilateral agreement with Turkmenistan and Iran. But the interest waned largely because of difficulties in having a gas pipeline through Pakistan. The idea of importing Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) by sea foundered because of the steep rise in the world gas prices
Altogether, therefore, coal will be king for power generation in India until other sources can replace it partially, though never fully. In this connection, three difficulties arise. First, the coalfields are located in the eastern states and the transport of coal adds to costs and sometimes causes delays. Secondly, the quality of Indian coal leaves a lot to be desired. Expensive new technologies can help improve it
Thirdly, there is the coal mafia whose depredations no government has been able to stem
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