Two Desgrees Celesius

If the Earth's global surface temperature goes up by a mere two degrees, chennai and Mumbai could be submerged under sea
TAKE A CLOSE look at the map of India and its coastline as it stands today. In the not-so-distant-future, only a fraction of the land space constituting Chennai, Mumbai and Kolkata might remian.
These cities are among the international danger zones that face the threat of submersion if global temperature rises at the present rate. Studies say that even an increase in the warmth of the planet by two degrees could spell catastrophe.Climate change resulting from global warming has become the biggest ecological and social challenge faced by the Indian subcontinent. The Geneva-based Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its recent report predicted that if the Earth's global surface temperature goes up by a mere two degrees, Chennai and Mumbai could be submerged under sea and up to seven million residents might have to shift to other cities, which means a citizen could become a refugee in his own country.
In recent times, the country has seen unprecedented and extreme weather conditions.
Several low-lying areas in Sunderbans have submerged due to the rising sea level.
Landslides (in Assam) and flooding (the recent Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka deluges) have been attributed to global warming.
But what are the cascading effects of this on India? Malini Mehra, a political scientist and the founder and CEO of Centre for Social Markets, who was nominated as a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum (Davos) in 2009 explains, "We have a long coastline of 7,500km and are susceptible to sea level rise, coastal flooding and saline ingress into agriculture and water tables.
More than a quarter of our population lives within 50 km of the coastline and are vulnerable to storm surges, cyclones and extreme weather events. Our food security and economy is dependent on the monsoon, which is showing increasing signs of volatility as with this year's monsoon which went missing in many parts of the country."
In contrast, in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka the very same m o n s o o n wrecked havoc with devastating human and economic repercussions. Scientists estimate that the Himalayan glaciers are melting the fastest in the world and it is most dangerous given that more than a billion peo ple are dependent on glacier-fed rivers in the Himalayan-Hindu Kush-Tibetan region. Malini remarks, "Today, we are more vul nerable to natural disasters such as droughts, floods and cyclones than other countries and these are likely to intensify as climate change takes hold of our region. The South Asia zone is projected to be the most vulnerable in the world to agricultural failure as a result of warmer temperatures, reduced rainfall and lower soil fertility."
She goes on to add, "The Indian land mass has already warmed by 0.5 degrees over the 20th century -- and this is only an average; we have seen spikes in temperature rise across the country. A rise in one degree Celsius results in approx 10 per cent loss in our agricultural security. Almost 60 per cent of our children suffer from malnutrition -- this additional agricultural burden signals severe health and social stability consequences for India. At a regional level, in some places, such as central Andhra Pradesh, we are seeing a 10 degrees Celsius rise -- reaching almost 45 degrees Celsius in the driest parts."
Experts believe that temperature rise in already dry areas will lead to evaporation of water and groundwater will go down further. Rivers could go dry and there would be widespread hardship for people and wildlife as well.
Apart from the creation of ecological refugees, there are severe economic and social impacts.
Kushal P.S. Yadav, a senior researcher and co-ordinator with the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), says, "It's not just the Sunderbans that have been affected owing to climate change related phenomenon. Several villages on the coast of Orissa are already inundated by sea water that ingresses into the villages."
For instance the residents of Satabhaya and Kanhupur villages have already become victims of sea water ingression and thousands had to be rehabilitated. Similarly, New Delhi, which was used to 90 days of moderate distribution of rains in the past few years, experienced only 10 to 12 days of intense rains this year. Parts of coastal cities like Kochi, Mumbai and Chennai are also susceptible to similar ingressions in the near future."Dr Vandana Shiva, a renowned ecologist and the founder of Navdanya -- a research foundation for science, technology and ecology, has authored several books highlighting the environmental costs of today's progress including Soil Not Oil. She says, "According to a study done by our organisation, there was 90 per cent crop failure across the country. However the government claims the figure was only 30 to 40 per cent. The entire Khariff crop in the country got damaged this year due to floods. This wasn't an unprovoked act of nature. It was the result of an aggravation of environmental instability. The rise in sea levels and melting of polar ice caps will have maximum impact on countries like India that are essentially coastal."
Elaborating on the causes that made such detrimental changes, Dr Vandana says, "Our country continues to produce steel and aluminium while major manufacturers of such metals like Bethlehem Steel in USA and many European companies have closed their shutters. The reason is nothing but emission of harmful greenhouse gases from such industries, which was beyond permissible limits. But not for India -- we're more than glad to pollute our airspace."
Miguel Braganza, additional director of the Organic Farming Association, a group of grassroot organic farmers who are working to preserve the environment says, "Until a few years ago we used to have regular south-west and north-east monsoons in our country. Unfortunately we are now dependent on depressions in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea for rains in India. Today, we have cyclonic rains moving in irregular patterns that cannot be predicted even by weather experts."
But all hope is not lost. Environmentalists say going back to the basics holds the key for reversing the damage done. Miguel explains, "There are several ways in which organic farming helps reduce carbon footprint and even contributes to the reversal of climate change. For instance, composting allows the release of carbon dioxide back into the soil rather than into the atmosphere.
Similarly, organic farming does not depend on fertilisers and pesticides. It also cuts down pollution occurring due to `food miles', which is the distance taken for your food to reach your plate from the garden where it is grown. As all our organic products are sold in local markets, the food miles are significantly lower when compared to inorganic products."
There are also those who prefer taking such forebodings lightly. Dr S.P.
Sharma, Statistical Advisor to the Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India remarks, "The projections foreseen through the study conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change seems exaggerated. Our studies carried out over a period of 50 years say that the average rate of retreat of the Himalayan glaciers has actually come down. Also there is no clear-cut evidence which directly links crop failure, droughts and floods to climate change. A separate impact assessment needs to be done to understand in detail how each issue is linked to climate change and other natural phenomena."